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Last week, Indian equity markets experienced high volatility due to the unexpected outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The NSE benchmark Nifty fluctuated within a wide range of 21,300 to 23,300 points, the broadest since May 2020.
With a new government forming on Sunday, market stability is anticipated for the coming week. The market outlook will depend on major domestic and global economic data.
Retail inflation (CPI) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data may be released on June 12. In March and April, the retail inflation rate was 4.85% and 4.83%, respectively. Economists predict a 4.8% rate for May. The IIP rate is expected to be 3.9% for April, down from 4.9% previously.
Globally, significant events on June 12, 2024, include the release of US core and consumer price inflation figures, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) economic projections. The Fed is likely to maintain interest rates between 5.25% and 5.50%, with the first rate cut expected in September or December. Additionally, important economic data from Japan, the UK, and China are also due next week.
Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, stated, “Nifty has shown impressive rebounds from its 200-day exponential moving average (200-DMA). The index is nearing its all-time high of 23,338, which serves as immediate resistance. A break above this level could propel the index towards 23,500 and even 23,800. On the downside, the 23,000-22,800 zone provides immediate support, with the crucial 20-DMA around 22,600 acting as a stronger floor.”
