Morgan Stanley predicts that despite recent market volatility, the Sensex could reach 1,00,000 by the end of 2025. In its base case scenario, they expect the Sensex to hit 93,000. This is driven by strong earnings, macroeconomic stability, and domestic flows. This suggests an 18% upside potential and a trailing P/E multiple of 23x, above the 25-year average of 20x.
In a more optimistic bull case, the Sensex could climb to 1,05,000. This assumes low oil prices, more monetary easing by the RBI, and more government reforms. Morgan Stanley sees a 30% chance for this scenario. Conversely, in a bear case, the Sensex could decline to 70,000 due to potential global economic slowdown and tighter monetary policies.
The firm remains positive on Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Technology sectors. They are less positive on other sectors. Morgan Stanley believes that 2025 will be a stock pickers’ market, driven by strong fundamentals and government policy initiatives.
