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Could India Be Trump’s Next Target in Tariff War?

2 years ago
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India Seeks $25B Export Gains from US-China Tariff War
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India’s tariff gap with the US is higher than that of China, Mexico, and Vietnam, according to analysis. The average tariff gap between India and the US is 11.9% across over 3,000 traded products. This gap is the difference between tariffs imposed by India on US imports and those imposed by the US on Indian exports. Around 10% of India’s exports to the US face tariffs over 10%.

In comparison, the tariff gap with China is 3.5%, with Vietnam 8%, Indonesia 7.2%, and Mexico 6.8%. The US imposed higher tariffs on 25 products compared to India. For example, while India imposed a 30% tariff on tobacco imports from the US, the US imposed a 60.3% tariff on Indian tobacco exports.

India’s trade surplus with the US was $43 billion in 2023, much lower than China’s $100 billion. A tariff war with India is unlikely to yield significant gains for the US. The US exports to India that attract tariffs over 100% include alcoholic beverages, coffee, tea, vegetable oil, cars, and motorcycles.

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