US Bond Yield Spikes Have a Stronger Impact on Equity Markets than Israel-Hamas Conflict

Amid the intensifying ground war in Gaza, the West Asian crisis has reached a peak of uncertainty. V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, emphasizes the need for investors to adopt a cautious strategy, given the unclear duration and consequences of this conflict.

Vijayakumar highlights that the primary influence on global equity markets is the spike in US bond yields, rather than the Israel-Hamas conflict. The US 10-year bond yield exceeding 4.9% is expected to remain a significant challenge for stock markets, especially in emerging markets. He anticipates that continued selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will exert further pressure on these markets.

Furthermore, the decline in Brent crude oil prices to $85 per barrel is seen as a positive development for India. Stocks in sectors such as aviation, paints, and tires are expected to respond positively to this price drop.

Investors are advised to monitor trends in high-quality large-cap companies like Maruti (NS:MRTI), ICICI Bank (NS:ICBK), HDFC Bank (NS:HDBK), RIL, ITC, and L&T, which have reported strong Q2 results. These companies offer good earnings visibility and are likely to attract substantial institutional buying once normalcy returns.

On Wednesday, the BSE Sensex experienced a 132-point drop, reaching 63,742 points. Notable decliners included Asian Paints (NS:ASPN), Nestle (NS:NEST), Maruti, and Kotak Mahindra Bank (NS:KTKM), with losses exceeding 1%.”