Could India Be Trump’s Next Target in Tariff War?

India’s tariff gap with the US is higher than that of China, Mexico, and Vietnam, according to analysis. The average tariff gap between India and the US is 11.9% across over 3,000 traded products. This gap is the difference between tariffs imposed by India on US imports and those imposed by the US on Indian exports. Around 10% of India’s exports to the US face tariffs over 10%.

In comparison, the tariff gap with China is 3.5%, with Vietnam 8%, Indonesia 7.2%, and Mexico 6.8%. The US imposed higher tariffs on 25 products compared to India. For example, while India imposed a 30% tariff on tobacco imports from the US, the US imposed a 60.3% tariff on Indian tobacco exports.

India’s trade surplus with the US was $43 billion in 2023, much lower than China’s $100 billion. A tariff war with India is unlikely to yield significant gains for the US. The US exports to India that attract tariffs over 100% include alcoholic beverages, coffee, tea, vegetable oil, cars, and motorcycles.