Brent crude prices are moving close to $110 per barrel and experts warn they may climb to $120 if tensions in Iran worsen. The rise is driven by supply risks at the Strait of Hormuz, stalled talks between the United States and Iran, and continuing instability in West Asia.
Analysts say any escalation of conflict could sharply tighten supplies. Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking noted that Brent may touch between $115 and $120 if the situation deteriorates further. US crude inventories have already fallen by 8 million barrels, adding pressure on prices. Saudi exports increased in September but remain vulnerable to attacks.
The International Energy Agency has warned that diesel supplies may stay tight until 2027. Global shipping routes face bottlenecks and alternative supply options are limited.
For India, which imports more than 85% of its crude needs, higher prices mean rising import bills, costlier fuel, and inflationary stress. While Russian oil imports have offered some relief, risks around infrastructure and logistics remain.
Key triggers ahead include possible disruption at the Strait of Hormuz and expansion of US‑Iran hostilities. Policy measures like G7 stockpile releases have not eased prices sustainably, leaving volatility as the dominant theme.
